Posted by
Keith on Monday, November 13, 2006 2:59:55 PM
The election is over. Where do Republicans go from here?
To answer that question, we must first know why the elections turned out as they did. Why did the Republicans lose their majority in both houses of Congress, and what does it mean?
The Republicans lost because, while vast numbers of the party’s base voters by and large showed up and voted for Republican candidates, independents voted more for Democrats than for Republicans. Although the base did show up and vote, many of them were angry at their senator or representative due to a perception that they had strayed from the party’s roots on a variety of issues such as out of control spending or illegal immigration. Meanwhile, the independents, those least, if at all, committed to maintaining a Republican majority in Congress, were by and large voting against Republican candidates due to their anger over the war in Iraq.
In many cases, too, Republican office holders were simply defeated because of local issues. Some simply ran weak campaigns, like Sen. George Allen of Virgina. Others were touched by scandal, such as Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, who was involved in the Abramoff scandal.
In terms of turnout, it’s also important to keep in mind that this was a midterm election. Millions of voters who typically vote in a presidential election do not bother to vote during a midterm election. While the GOP made a lot of noise about its Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation, obviously, as good as it is, it wasn’t enough by itself to ensure victory.
It’s also important to realize that many of the Democrats who won did not win by loudly and proudly standing up as liberals. Instead, many of them campaigned to the right of their Republican opponents, just as Bill Clinton did to George H.W. Bush in 1992. We will soon see if today’s Democratic members of Congress take their campaign promises as seriously as Clinton did. Remember that middle class tax cut he enacted? Oh wait.
One final point: This was a midterm election in the 6th year of a presidential term. By that standard, the loss of seats by the President’s party is lower than those of 1938, 1958 and 1966.
All of this is to say that, while the party is by no means doomed to spend another 40 years in the political wilderness, neither can Republicans assume that they will be back on top in two years either. Business as usual won’t cut it anymore.
The Republican Party is going to have to rediscover its roots as the party of limited government, lower taxes, less spending, economic growth, a strong national defense and a commitment to do whatever it takes not just to have an exit strategy, but to actually win, in Iraq and in the Global War on Terror.
The Republicans in the House of Representatives will soon gather to choose their new leaders. They will have a choice between leaders of the Old Guard, such as current Majority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, or new faces, people not connected with Jack Abramoff, Mark Foley, or runaway federal spending, such as John Shadegg of Arizona or Mike Pence of Indiana, both of whom, for instance voted against the prescription drug entitlement that it is now obvious did nothing for the Republican Party. We will see whether the Republicans in Congress intend to practice business as usual or truly see the need to do something different by who gets elected.